Head coach Hugo Broos' South Africa have defied expectations by pushing all the way through to the final four of AFCON - and their success has breathed new life into local interest in the tournament and the team.

But...

The job is not done

No one will accuse them of failure if they do not advance past Nigeria on Wednesday. However, there is a sense that South Africa have already achieved what they set out to at AFCON and more.

If this feeling sinks in too far, it will make it even more difficult to pull themselves out of a difficult situation against Nigeria, such as if they go a goal or two down early.

Broos himself admitted the quarter-final against Cape Verde was so stressful it probably took years off his life because they were so desperate to qualify for the semi-final.

Hopefully, they can find that sort of energy against Nigeria - but it can't last forever.

History is on Nigeria's side

The last time South Africa beat Nigeria was in 2017 and the previous time these two teams met in the semi-final of AFCON, the Super Eagles emerged victorious in the year 2000.

Nigeria also have more pedigree in the later stage of the Africa Cup of Nations than South Africa, having won it three times in 1980, 1994 and 2013, as well as being runner-up twice in 2006 and 2012. They also have eight bronze medals from finishing third.

Bafana Bafana, on the other hand, have won it once in 1996, came second once in 1998 and third once in 2000 - after being beaten in the semi-final by Nigeria.

Overall, in the 14 head-to-head games between the two nations, Nigeria have won seven, drawn five and lost just two games against South Africa.

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Super Eagles peaking at the right time

Nigeria, along with just about every other team considered a favourite when the tournament started, did not get off to a particularly good start in a 1-1 draw with Equatorial Guinea.

Since then they have beaten hosts Ivory Coast and Guinea Bissau in their other two group games before going on to beat Cameroon in the round of 16 and Angola in the semi-final, all without conceding a single goal.

Their performances have become a lot more assured too and they never really looked in danger of conceding against Angola or Cameroon.

Victor Osimhen may miss the match

There are some doubts over the fitness of star striker Victor Osimhen after he missed training on Monday because of abdominal discomfort. Nigeria said he could still play if he recovers enough in time to join up with the rest of the squad before the match.

However, as weird as it sounds, this is something South Africa should not be concerning themselves with.

While there is no doubt Osimhen is one of the best strikers in the world and would make an impact if he played, Nigeria are still the better team without him and South Africa should not assume it will be easier playing Nigeria without him.

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Bafana Bafana can't sit back and hope for penalties

South Africa have approached the whole of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations with a defensive mindset and it has served them very well so far - but it would be a mistake to allow a team of Nigeria's quality too much time and space to attack whenever and wherever they please.

Bafana need to try to get on the front foot, preferably as early as possible, to let Nigeria know they have a game on their hands and are not going to have everything all their own way.

Whether that is in the form of slightly more attacking tactics or just asking his defenders to get stuck in a bit harder is up to Broos - but South Africa have to make a concerted effort to interrupt Nigeria's gameplan as soon as possible.

You can watch Nigeria versus South Africa on SABC Sport’s live stream or follow the match in SABC Sport’s live soccer scores centre.

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